What Super Tuesday meant for voter turnout and engagement

Super Tuesday was a week ago, and in that span the Democratic presidential field has narrowed to three: former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard.

Although headlines focused on Biden’s overall win, with a total of 652 current delegates compared to Sanders’s 575 and Gabbard’s 2, the other main takeaway is the overall voter turnout and engagement.

Since the early 1990’s, Texas has been dominated by the GOP, but Super Tuesday voter turnout showed the potential to flip the Texas House if voting remains consistent in the November general election. 

Nearly 70,000 more Texans voted for a Democratic presidential candidate than a Republican, which hasn’t occurred since 2008.

While this difference is less than 1% of voters, if the proportion of Democratic and Republican voters remain consistent in the general election, Texas could see significant flips down the ballot. Texas Democrats would need to win nine additional seats in the general election to flip the Texas House, in addition to defending the 12 seats they picked up last year. Of note, Texas Democrats have not held control of the chamber since the 77th Legislature in 2003.

Among the numerous contested federal and state seats, the race for US senator has the potential to offer a shake up. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who has held his seat since 2002 and was Republican Senate Majority Whip for the 114th and 115th Congresses, will be challenged by either MJ Hegar or State Senator Royce West (D-Dallas), who will enter a runoff in the Democratic primary. The race could be close if it follows the precedent of the 2018 Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Beto O'Rourke, which resulted in a 2.6% margin, marking the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978. 

Although the Democratic Primary offered many potential hopes for flipping seats, voter turnout was relatively low. Only 25% of registered voters voted in the primary, meaning the general election could greatly flip the primary results if the majority of registered voters show up. 

This primary also under performed in terms of number of voters historically with 200,000 less voters casting ballots in the 2020 primary compared to 2016. These low numbers point to a lack of coordination behind the early presidential candidates, especially for the Democrats who had 25 candidates running at its peak.

“Not Trump” is a rallying cry may not be enough for the Democrats to win 2020 in the general if the voter turnout remains relatively low and apathetic to voting. Because of this, candidates throughout the ballot must focus on increasing their reach of voters, especially historically low voting populations.

Some have claimed Democratic candidates (those remaining in the race and those who have already dropped out) failed to reach and engage the Black electorate, who make up about one-fifth of the Democratic primary electorate in Texas. Engaging this significant minority population nationally, but specifically in Texas is essential to avoid repeating the low Black voter turnout rate, which decreased for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election and partially cost the Democrats a victory in the 2020 presidential election. 

Latino voters are expected to be the largest minority voting group in 2020. In Texas’s 2018 midterms, Latino votes nearly reached presidential election levels, which is rare since midterm elections receive historically lower voter turnout overall. This surge of Latino voters can go either way since Latino voters are traditionally swing voters between parties based on immigration and abortion policies.

It appears Latino and Black Democratic votes are split, with the former favoring Sanders and the latter Biden.

Overall, young voters also need to be reached by candidates. Less than 20 percent of Super Tuesday voters were under age 30, with no states exceeding 20 percent. In Texas, only 15 percent of voters were between ages 18-29 in the 2020 primary, which is 5 percent lower than the 2016 primary. This demographic is historically known to not vote as largely as other age demographics.

As of now the Presidency as well as many seats in Texas are the Republicans to win based on historical patterns, so targeting these historically low voting populations is essential for increased voter turnout, especially if Democrats nationally and in Texas hope to flip seats.